Altria: Puzzling

“The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity.” - Douglas Horton

Altria has long held a more concise story than its geographically diverse industry constituents, with sales concentration in the United States steadying the group’s high-quality earnings. However, that same concentration means headwinds from the under-addressed illicit vapor market continue to weigh on the business with amplified effect, and management has seemingly made great efforts to make the narrative more complex. Now, many details have begun to move in unintended ways, painting a puzzling picture. Let us once again reassemble the pieces:

1. The joyless position of NJOY

2. The push and pulls within the combustibles space

3. Strength of the oral category within the United States

4. Distillation of the value proposition

5. Illustration of financial estimates