6 Comments

Great work as usual, Devin. Thank you!

Expand full comment

Glad you enjoyed it, John. Thanks for reading.

Expand full comment

"the company’s partner, the U.S. federal government"

"The ultimate balancing act goes on"

;-)

There is one difference to the balancing act now, though, from times before. Now we have revenues declining. If this is a trend, the balancing act will need to be done on a thinner rope than before.

Expand full comment

Thanks for reading, Simon. That could be true! If revenues net of excise taxes continue to decline, it depends on to what extent and if equilibrium is ever found, as well as what impact manufacturer net price realization has. For the equity, these factors, along /w capital structure will play a huge role in forward returns. But EPS still has a clear pathway for LSD-MSD growth across a wide number of probable scenarios.

Expand full comment

Another sensational analysis.

Expand full comment

Great write-up on a great company. Nice work, Devin!

We're intrigued by tobacco companies' history of outperformance even while smoking declined. We took in a different direction though and highlighted the similarities to the coal industry today.

https://specialsituationinvesting.substack.com/p/a-coal-royalty-company-natural-resource#details

Expand full comment