26 Comments

> My view remains unchanged that British American Tobacco has the widest spectrum of potential future outcomes relative to its peers.

I think that’s a fair conclusion.

Part of the difficulty (and the fun!) of being an investor is figuring out long term trends. Will one of the three NGP categories manage not only to take a large share from combustibles, but also be adopted by people who have never smoked?

In the US, the FDA has been pretty adamant, especially with vaping, that users should be current or former smokers. But when I look at modern oral, I see the possibility that it might be adopted more widely. I think it was Six Bravo who shared videos of Peter Attia explaining why he takes modern oral. Many financial analysts I read on Twitter sometimes offhandedly mention how they use Zyn. And modern oral is invisible in a way that vaping and HNB are not, reducing stigma and IMO reducing the political pressure on the FDA to reduce its use among adults.

Expand full comment
Jul 30, 2023Liked by Devin LaSarre

Have you seen clear evidence the FDA are implementing on taking the illegal vapes off the retail selfs in the USA. The uk are having a similar problem if illegal vapes but there are constant news reports of actual shops being raiding by enforcement agency’s and closed or fines. The uk are taking this problem seriously. I’m concerned FDA are not enforcing it enough.

Expand full comment
Jul 30, 2023Liked by Devin LaSarre

given the increasing debt service cost, I would reckon that paying back more debt is more beneficial than resuming the share buybacks

Expand full comment

All I could think of whilst reading this is how impressive Zyn and IQOS are

Expand full comment
Aug 2, 2023·edited Aug 2, 2023Liked by Devin LaSarre

Hi. Does anyone know what is going on with $5bn of NEW bond offering. They removed $2.9bn of the debt, and replaced it with $5bn of NEW debt => total INCREASE of debt: $2.1bn. I hope I am wrong, am I? Thanks😃

Expand full comment

Great Article.

Owned BAT took a profit, bought a muni below par.

Looking at BAT again.

Expand full comment