2022 full-year analysis and valuation.
Really great article, thank you for writing it. My hope is that BAT use excess FCF to pay off some of the near term debt rather than refinancing it at higher rates and then use the saved interest expense to buyback shares.
Good writeup. I feel like this industry offers relative safety in a very uncertain environment, and PMI's management in particular seems to always be a step ahead. Between a US rollout of iQOS and the Swedish Match acquisition there's a real under the radar growth story playing out here in an industry that many investors have written off.
Great write-up! Thanks for sharing all that work and in such detail. We recently took a look at tobacco stocks due to their stellar returns against the declining use of their traditional product. It’s a fascinating case study and we believe it could play out in another out-of-favor sector. Coal.
BTI is must massively underpriced. BTI is an excellent company with solid management. It has made tremendous progress in NGP’s. I believe BTI is very likely to be able to grow profits in the 5%-8% annually on average over the next several years. BTI is taking the debt to significantly below manageable levels. There is absolutely nothing broken in BTI’s story. Mr. Market is being crazy with the stock. I would not consider BTI even fully priced until it hit PE15 or $70 on 2023 projected EPS. That’s right, that means BTI is priced at exactly 1/2 of full value. You can right now buy 2 shares for what 1 share should cost at retail.