I played Ultima Online for 7 ish years since 2000. To this day I still come back and play it on various private servers from time to time. Truly one of the best!
That’s awesome! 2000 was a great period for the game. I haven’t played in a very long time, but have tons of fond memories, and have close friends made through the game over 20 years ago.
If video game designers can’t predict how players will interact within their (fairly simple) game, then anyone making forecasts about the economy or financial markets should be very humble because these are even more complex phenomena.
But that’s not how forecasters behave most of the time. Wall Street strategists go on TV and confidently announce their S&P 500 price targets. PhD economists declare that a recession is certainly coming or that inflation is transitory.
Coincidentally, I am listening to an interview of William Green on Behind the Balance Sheet. Green says that exceptional investors share a trait — they see the world differently than others, often by having unique interests that they apply to investing. You have shared a pretty unique perspective. Thank you Devin!
Thank you for the Sunday gut-punch: "And the fact that the wolf was worth more than the deer or the rabbit was irrelevant. Just the fact that it was fun to kill would have been enough for them to eradicate all living things on the surface."
I felt that same reaction when I came across that bit. Thought about drilling down into that part of human drive, but that's a whole different discussion (and a much longer one).
I played Ultima Online for 7 ish years since 2000. To this day I still come back and play it on various private servers from time to time. Truly one of the best!
That’s awesome! 2000 was a great period for the game. I haven’t played in a very long time, but have tons of fond memories, and have close friends made through the game over 20 years ago.
This is a very interesting post!
If video game designers can’t predict how players will interact within their (fairly simple) game, then anyone making forecasts about the economy or financial markets should be very humble because these are even more complex phenomena.
But that’s not how forecasters behave most of the time. Wall Street strategists go on TV and confidently announce their S&P 500 price targets. PhD economists declare that a recession is certainly coming or that inflation is transitory.
Coincidentally, I am listening to an interview of William Green on Behind the Balance Sheet. Green says that exceptional investors share a trait — they see the world differently than others, often by having unique interests that they apply to investing. You have shared a pretty unique perspective. Thank you Devin!
Great points, Tian. Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment
Great parallels! Always an interesting read.
🙏
Thank you for the Sunday gut-punch: "And the fact that the wolf was worth more than the deer or the rabbit was irrelevant. Just the fact that it was fun to kill would have been enough for them to eradicate all living things on the surface."
I felt that same reaction when I came across that bit. Thought about drilling down into that part of human drive, but that's a whole different discussion (and a much longer one).