There’s certainly some give and take. Marlboro Black Gold in combo with granular store-level pricing and individualized promotion via retail apps helps retain base in-brand. Monitoring price gap, share, prem share, etc helps highlight evolution. In all, affordability in U.S. still much better than most of world
Not a company specific comment, is it possible that Fed rate cuts will increase the attractiveness of high dividend paying stocks? Earning 5% in a money market does take the edge of stock investing in times of uncertainty and rising/high rates.
That’s certainly a way to frame it. Rates are like gravity. Altria essentially functions as short duration. If rates drop, similar equities may appear more attractive to those seeking yield, but at the same time, lower rates lowers cost of capital and increases availability broadly, so money is likely to flow to longer duration skewed toward growth
Hello Devin - in reading your excellent review and analysis (I am now monitoring Altria for a potential personal investment position), would their premium brands and profit growth being reliant upon aggressive price increases make them more vulnerable than historically in a scenario of a severe consumer recession?
Selling BUD to accelerate buybacks appears to most straightforward thing to do. However, say, Smokeables concerns continue to mount over the next 1-2 years and BUD continues to execute (company has actually been putting up impressive numbers, Sans U.S. marketing misstep), there could be a much greater opportunity a few years out. Hopefully, at the very least, management allows the treatment of the BUD stake to be a larger part of discussions.
There’s certainly some give and take. Marlboro Black Gold in combo with granular store-level pricing and individualized promotion via retail apps helps retain base in-brand. Monitoring price gap, share, prem share, etc helps highlight evolution. In all, affordability in U.S. still much better than most of world
Not a company specific comment, is it possible that Fed rate cuts will increase the attractiveness of high dividend paying stocks? Earning 5% in a money market does take the edge of stock investing in times of uncertainty and rising/high rates.
That’s certainly a way to frame it. Rates are like gravity. Altria essentially functions as short duration. If rates drop, similar equities may appear more attractive to those seeking yield, but at the same time, lower rates lowers cost of capital and increases availability broadly, so money is likely to flow to longer duration skewed toward growth
Hello Devin - in reading your excellent review and analysis (I am now monitoring Altria for a potential personal investment position), would their premium brands and profit growth being reliant upon aggressive price increases make them more vulnerable than historically in a scenario of a severe consumer recession?
I want them to start selling the BUD stake yesterday!
Selling BUD to accelerate buybacks appears to most straightforward thing to do. However, say, Smokeables concerns continue to mount over the next 1-2 years and BUD continues to execute (company has actually been putting up impressive numbers, Sans U.S. marketing misstep), there could be a much greater opportunity a few years out. Hopefully, at the very least, management allows the treatment of the BUD stake to be a larger part of discussions.
Another great Summary Devin!
🙏