Interesting analysis. I purchased some $MO last year, on a dip after some bad news came out. So far very happy with it and could potentially add some $BTI due to the decreasing price, I will take a look at its dividend. Although currently I am focused on building up my South American oil company ( $EC and $PBR ) positions.
Thank you for another balanced and in-depth article Devin!
I appreciate that you started discussing Jack Bowles’ resignation. I was really confused why that happened and, although you don’t have any definitive answer, it helps to think about possibilities. To me the main question boils down to whether he was fired because the board thought his strategy (for both combustibles and NGPs) had failed. If he was fired for something personal or for violating US sanctions, I’m not as worried.
Reading about ITC’s diworsification made me chuckle. They are following in the footsteps of 1980’s RJR!
One typo: You write “Tadeo” Marroco instead of the correct “Tadeu.”
Very much agreed. The resignation was abrupt, and as mentioned, without detail. The fact that no detail was provided leads me to believe the sanction violations are the likely reason. Not only would the company like to ignore wrongdoing and move past such gross actions quickly, but the deferred prosecution agreement actually precludes them from commenting on it. If it has anything to do with NGPs, there is perhaps much greater danger looming under the hood, and any other reason other than sanction violations will surely earn at least a short explanation from the company at some point in the near future.
Thanks for pointing on Tadeu's spelling. No excuse for how that typo passed through and I can surely do better.
I think you’re right that his departure is due to sanctions violations and that the company can’t comment. Last March PRAA admitted to sanctions violations and less than a week later the CEO and co-founder resigned. The next CEO was very vague about the circumstances on the next conf call.
FWIW, Deutsche Bank seems to exclude the possibility Bowles' departure was due to pressure from a large shareholder. However I'm not sure how credible this is. (My ***emphasis***.)
"Despite the challenges we are nevertheless (very) surprised the board has moved with immediate effect to replace now former CEO Bowles with CFO Marroco (a replacement as CFO is being sought). Always cognisant of individuals being affected by such decisions, we nevertheless applaud the Board's decisiveness. In that regard we note that ***while there may have been some shareholder angst we are unaware of a co-ordinated move by shareholders; from our standpoint this looks like the Board's decision alone***."
Nice to see some rationality, all I read about is ‘moving the listing’ and ‘itc stake is worth 25% of the company’
That's very kind. Thanks for reading!
Agreed. Devin is one of the most balanced and sober financial analysts on tobacco stocks.
Interesting analysis. I purchased some $MO last year, on a dip after some bad news came out. So far very happy with it and could potentially add some $BTI due to the decreasing price, I will take a look at its dividend. Although currently I am focused on building up my South American oil company ( $EC and $PBR ) positions.
Thanks for reading, Joaquin. Plenty more to come.
Thank you for another balanced and in-depth article Devin!
I appreciate that you started discussing Jack Bowles’ resignation. I was really confused why that happened and, although you don’t have any definitive answer, it helps to think about possibilities. To me the main question boils down to whether he was fired because the board thought his strategy (for both combustibles and NGPs) had failed. If he was fired for something personal or for violating US sanctions, I’m not as worried.
Reading about ITC’s diworsification made me chuckle. They are following in the footsteps of 1980’s RJR!
One typo: You write “Tadeo” Marroco instead of the correct “Tadeu.”
Very much agreed. The resignation was abrupt, and as mentioned, without detail. The fact that no detail was provided leads me to believe the sanction violations are the likely reason. Not only would the company like to ignore wrongdoing and move past such gross actions quickly, but the deferred prosecution agreement actually precludes them from commenting on it. If it has anything to do with NGPs, there is perhaps much greater danger looming under the hood, and any other reason other than sanction violations will surely earn at least a short explanation from the company at some point in the near future.
Thanks for pointing on Tadeu's spelling. No excuse for how that typo passed through and I can surely do better.
I think you’re right that his departure is due to sanctions violations and that the company can’t comment. Last March PRAA admitted to sanctions violations and less than a week later the CEO and co-founder resigned. The next CEO was very vague about the circumstances on the next conf call.
Don’t worry about the typo! Your articles are some of the most polished I read. I want to write more and you are one of the writers I look up to.
That's very kind, and I always appreciate your support. Just always pushing myself to be better!
Great read. Thanks for sharing your expertise, Devin!
Thank you! I truly appreciate you reading and commenting.
FWIW, Deutsche Bank seems to exclude the possibility Bowles' departure was due to pressure from a large shareholder. However I'm not sure how credible this is. (My ***emphasis***.)
"Despite the challenges we are nevertheless (very) surprised the board has moved with immediate effect to replace now former CEO Bowles with CFO Marroco (a replacement as CFO is being sought). Always cognisant of individuals being affected by such decisions, we nevertheless applaud the Board's decisiveness. In that regard we note that ***while there may have been some shareholder angst we are unaware of a co-ordinated move by shareholders; from our standpoint this looks like the Board's decision alone***."
Interesting note. Thanks for sharing!
Hey Mate, I like your work. Would you be down to make a cross post ? let me know.