Foreshocks

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” - Yogi Berra

In short order, numerous themes that have been focused on throughout the year have converged. October’s Bubble Trouble opened:

…Across capitalism, there are few occurrences more fierce than the wolf-like battles fought to win in consumer product categories. Brand equity is powerful, but if not managed well, it can wither. In nascent categories, building it in the first place is a truly arduous task. Often, it becomes apparent that brands are merely renting market share rather than earning a special place in the consumer’s mind.

When considering leading brands of any one product category, the future is often imagined as a Coke vs. Pepsi-type scenario, with just a few dominant brands and the rest of the pack fighting for scraps. This type of framing is routinely applied to newer product categories, including nicotine pouches, where competition is intensifying. Considering historical precedent and the unique regulatory environment for nicotine products, this is not baseless. However, whether it’s nicotine pouches or otherwise, the evolution of another beverage category reminds us of the potential for turbulence. First-movers falling behind and unlikely upheavals are just two of the numerous instances in which expectations are dashed by the considerable uncertainty our world presents.

The parallels are unmistakable. A ‘premium’ first-mover from Europe? Check. A Supply shock? Check. Lower-cost competition swooping in? Check. Underlying secular growth drivers further incentivizing competition, thereby heightening promotion and aggressive pricing? Check. The starkest differentiator between the two stories is the timelines, with the evolution of the nicotine pouch market now accelerating far faster, despite the more significant regulatory dynamics at play.

In August, Altria announced it would be launching on! Plus in the United States, in defiance of the FDA, as the product’s application, stuck in regulatory limbo, had not received Market Granted Orders. The company selected North Carolina, Texas, and Florida as launch states, and also temporarily sold the product on onnicotine(dot)com to adult consumers located in the majority of states. Around the same time, Altria’s subsidiary, NJOY LLC, sued the FDA in Louisiana. Altria appeared to be preparing to battle on behalf of not just NJOY, but also setting the stage to do so with its nicotine pouch products. Then, without notice, the company paused its US sales of on! Plus, leaving nothing but silence until this past Thursday, December 19th, 2025, when the FDA announced the authorization of six on! Plus variants: Mint, Tobacco, and Wintergreen flavors, each available in 6mg and 9mg strengths. While seemingly straightforward, these authorizations suggest much grander implications for the United States nicotine pouch market, forcing many to recalibrate their expectations.

Tsunami, circa 1830-1832, Hokusai - Also, a wave of new competition in the United States pouch market.