4 Comments
⭠ Return to thread

Informative, well researched, and balanced writeup. I’m a lot more bullish on iQOS in the US, but maybe that’s because I’ve seen how ubiquitous it has become in parts of Europe.

Expand full comment

You're too kind! I'm bullish overall on IQOS - I simply want to try to remain as conservative as possible in how I'm approaching valuing the business. IQOS has surely been a radical success in Europe. If anything close to that is replicated in the U.S., a very different story will emerge.

Expand full comment

I appreciate your conservative approach. I’m kinda seeing this as a stealth growth stock. Love that expectations for it are so low.

Expand full comment

I think that general framing is right. Superior margin profile, capital intensity, and ROCE than most of the market, yet still priced lower. Idiosyncratic risks weighed vs. unique advantages, and most market participants uninterested

Expand full comment