I ordered a few times from them already. They delivered exactly what ordered and fast (and you get a little candy with it). The problem with the stock is that i don't see the long term moat.
The question i ask myself is: Would i order online if every supermarket or gas station would have a wide array of nicotine pouches to offer? In Germany nicotine pouches are forbidden in retail, but you can order them legally from Sweden, Denmark etc. in normal quantities.
I understand why a German like me orders there (no legal alternative), but not why someone from Denmark, Sweden, Poland etc. orders online (more choices of flavors?).
If they would be sold at every supermarket, corner store, gas station etc. Would i not just simply buy them there while filling up my car?
I don t know one person ordering cigarettes online. Prices are fixed and you get them in every small village via vending machines ( ok, no niche brands. But brands like Marlboro, Lucky Strike, Camel, Pall Mall etc.).
On the Haypp Group website, in the Excel spreadsheet entitled "Selected-KPIs-and-financial-statements-Q120-Q423", in the tab entitled "5_BSheet", under net debt, the line entitled "Bank Overdraft" is relatively large each quarter, with an ending balance on 31 Dec '23 of SEK136Mn. In the same Excel spreadsheet, in the tab entitled "6_CF", under "Cash flow from financing activities", the line entitled "Change bank overdraft" is also quite large, with quarterly amounts [in SEK millions] of -41.9, -43.3, -24.9 and 21.8. Why does Haypp overdraft its account(s)? What are the constraints on such overdrafts and how long may they continue?
just awesome. Do you think that all the big guys will have their own Online Shop like Zyn.com etc?
It would be great to do a blog post about position sizing in this tobacco market. There are cigars (Scandinavian Tobacco), New Products (PMI), cigarettes (BAT, IMP), online retailer (Haypp). How do you size the position when each of these "Tobacco" companies have a unique niche/position?
Regarding Germany; it´s officially illegal to buy in physical stores, yes. However, most people I know get them from small stores (kiosk / Späti) anyway. I wonder if consumption would fall if German legislators decide to forbid this "illegal" otc selling and consumers would have to order online. Definetly not the driving force of the thesis, but I believe good to have in mind.
Thank you Devin. You mention that they carefully select the suppliers they want to work with. Doesn’t it bother you that they stock products like Elf Bar in the UK?
Devin, at their 2023 CMD, they show that NPs are ideal e-goods based on 5 characteristics (slide 10). They compare that to pharmaceuticals which also score well on the same characteristics. You’ve been covering Logista extensively. IIRC Logista has been expanding into pharmaceuticals. Couldn’t Logista expand into NPs? Maybe I’m confusing B2B (Logista) with B2C (Haypp).
As others have commented, this is a fantastic piece. The H215 letter is a nice touch. I hadn’t heard about Haypp (my brain keeps reading “Happy”!) Thank you Devin.
Good article as always,
I ordered a few times from them already. They delivered exactly what ordered and fast (and you get a little candy with it). The problem with the stock is that i don't see the long term moat.
The question i ask myself is: Would i order online if every supermarket or gas station would have a wide array of nicotine pouches to offer? In Germany nicotine pouches are forbidden in retail, but you can order them legally from Sweden, Denmark etc. in normal quantities.
I understand why a German like me orders there (no legal alternative), but not why someone from Denmark, Sweden, Poland etc. orders online (more choices of flavors?).
If they would be sold at every supermarket, corner store, gas station etc. Would i not just simply buy them there while filling up my car?
I don t know one person ordering cigarettes online. Prices are fixed and you get them in every small village via vending machines ( ok, no niche brands. But brands like Marlboro, Lucky Strike, Camel, Pall Mall etc.).
I wish you all a good start to the week :).
Greetings Ulrich
On the Haypp Group website, in the Excel spreadsheet entitled "Selected-KPIs-and-financial-statements-Q120-Q423", in the tab entitled "5_BSheet", under net debt, the line entitled "Bank Overdraft" is relatively large each quarter, with an ending balance on 31 Dec '23 of SEK136Mn. In the same Excel spreadsheet, in the tab entitled "6_CF", under "Cash flow from financing activities", the line entitled "Change bank overdraft" is also quite large, with quarterly amounts [in SEK millions] of -41.9, -43.3, -24.9 and 21.8. Why does Haypp overdraft its account(s)? What are the constraints on such overdrafts and how long may they continue?
just awesome. Do you think that all the big guys will have their own Online Shop like Zyn.com etc?
It would be great to do a blog post about position sizing in this tobacco market. There are cigars (Scandinavian Tobacco), New Products (PMI), cigarettes (BAT, IMP), online retailer (Haypp). How do you size the position when each of these "Tobacco" companies have a unique niche/position?
Thanks so much!!
Thank you for this writeup.
Jason has an incredible knack for capturing these sorts of megatrends.
Fascinating write up
Thanks a lot for publishing.
Regarding Germany; it´s officially illegal to buy in physical stores, yes. However, most people I know get them from small stores (kiosk / Späti) anyway. I wonder if consumption would fall if German legislators decide to forbid this "illegal" otc selling and consumers would have to order online. Definetly not the driving force of the thesis, but I believe good to have in mind.
Hello everyone.
Do you guys reinvest the dividend in these tobacco stocks or do you „cash out“ via the dividend and invest in other assets.
Thank you Devin. You mention that they carefully select the suppliers they want to work with. Doesn’t it bother you that they stock products like Elf Bar in the UK?
Wow! Good job!
Great discovery and writeup. Glad to be a subscriber! Thanks for your efforts.
Devin, at their 2023 CMD, they show that NPs are ideal e-goods based on 5 characteristics (slide 10). They compare that to pharmaceuticals which also score well on the same characteristics. You’ve been covering Logista extensively. IIRC Logista has been expanding into pharmaceuticals. Couldn’t Logista expand into NPs? Maybe I’m confusing B2B (Logista) with B2C (Haypp).
As others have commented, this is a fantastic piece. The H215 letter is a nice touch. I hadn’t heard about Haypp (my brain keeps reading “Happy”!) Thank you Devin.