Resolve
“There is no chance, no destiny, no fate, that can circumvent or hinder or control the firm resolve of a determined soul.” - Ella Wheeler Wilcox
Big headlines are often surprising, but how people respond rarely is. There are those on the far ends of the spectrum, declaring that any event in particular is absolutely irrelevant or the only thing that matters. It’s either all roses and rainbows or doom and gloom. 2024 provided no shortage of ammo for people to stray further.
Attitudes across the broad market appear equally stretched. There are vast pockets in which participants find perpetually unprofitable endeavors unusually valuable. But make no mistake: market pricing and underlying value are radically different beasts. At the same time, despite excess capital flocking toward fanciful narratives, there remain deep chasms in the market. Dark. Some are filled with despair. Others simply apathy.
What is one to do?
First, admire the marvelous, invariant dance. Second, maintain your steely resolve so that you don’t get sucked in. Third, never stop searching and questioning. Refine your work.
2024 has been a fantastic year for Invariant. A widening interest in the tobacco and nicotine space has driven readership growth at a steady pace. Industry coverage makes up the bulk of the 2024 archive, and I believe I have captured its evolution well enough that insights throughout will be valuable references nicely into the future. I am also keenly fond of the responses received for several of my pieces touching on philosophy and history:
Invariant, 2024 Archive
1 Logista: Old Roots, Green Sprouts
2 22nd Century Group: Answering the Wrong Question
3 On Track
6 Philip Morris International: More More More
7 British American Tobacco: Shining Through
8 Haypp Group: Ahead of the Nicotine Pouch Megatrend
10 Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Across the Board
12 There Aren't Many John Middletons
14 Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Added Figures
15 Indefensible
17 Philip Morris International: Product Position
20 Scandinavian Tobacco Group: What Is Normal?
21 Logista: Steady as She Goes
22 Imperial Brands: Black Hole
23 The Fertile Grounds of Decay
24 Rock On
25 Hetty Green: Unspent Fortune
26 United-Guardian: Welcoming Instability
27 Intercontinental Exchange: Looking Back
30 Philip Morris International: Follow Through
31 British American Tobacco: So What?
34 Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Aggression Abounds
37 Nicotine Pouches: The US Front
40 United-Guardian: Through Hindsight
41 The Curious Case of Karelia
42 British American Tobacco: Refocused
43 Philip Morris International: All Fronts
46 Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Elusive
49 Imperial Brands: Doubt-Driven
50 British American Tobacco: Indigestion
51 The U.S. Nicotine Market: Odds and Ends
52 Resolve
Resolve
Despite a year of solid work I am proud of, upon further reflection, there is still far more to do and much to improve. For 2025, I will maintain my core coverages. I will also widen the subject matters. More importantly, I will be making a concerted effort to refine precisely how information is relayed to you, the reader. As readership and my network grow, so do the resources at my disposal to acquire information, alternative perspectives, and criticisms required to produce higher-value insights. I am forever grateful for your readership and support, and I remain deeply excited about what’s in store.
Happy New Year.
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Disclaimer
This publication’s content is for entertainment and educational purposes only. I am not a licensed investment professional. Nothing produced under the Invariant brand should be thought of as investment advice. Do your own research. All content is subject to interpretation.
Happy New Year Devin - and keep up the great work!
I’m a new reader. Very impressed with your detailed work. Hopefully you’ll entertain some questions from the back of the classroom. Happy new year!